Trump, Backfire King
September 1, 2025
by William P. Meyers

Site Search

Popular pages:

Depression, Apocalypse on the Horizon?

Democrats will not say it, but they are hoping for an economic recession before the 2026 midterm elections. A recession would normally guarantee a win for the party out of power. No one wants another Great Depression, but on the other hand if Trump becomes the 21st century Herbert Hoover, the Democrats would expect a sweep in the 2028 election. Happy days are here again?

The possible silver lining, of a depression would be a major drop off in fossil fuel consumption. That might make the Slow Motion Apocalypse slow down significantly and give humans time to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy.

What are the chances of a recession or depression? No one really knows. The United States, and the world, have never seen this exact combination of events before. The federal budget deficit, and the national debt, are out of control, but that tends to stimulate an economy in the short run. The new tariffs will likely destroy trade and many U.S. businesses dependent on it, but when consumers are unable to buy they may be forced to save, which could have a tonic effect on our paycheck-to-paycheck culture. We have seen forest fires, floods, and hurricanes tear holes in some geographic areas of the economy, but the insurance funds released for rebuilding could stimulate the economy.

Warning signs abound. The stock market is high (compared to the actual profits generated by its constituent firms). Inflation is moderately high. Employment is good, so far. Housing remains weak due to high interest rates, high insurance rates, high construction costs, and our paycheck-to-paycheck culture (because you need to save, often for years, to have a down to qualify for a mortgage for a house or condo). People (and corporations) buy Bitcoin, driving its price up, but its actual use or circulation is near zero.

Then there are the potential black swans, the unknown unknowns. The economic white swan of the past couple of years is AI. Astonishing amounts of money have been borrowed to fund making the chips, breaking ground for server farms, and giving AI software firms that are losing money sky-high valuations. A black swan could be out of a science fiction novel, like the sudden death of the internet, another but more devastating plague, or a heat dome of sufficient scope to cause a famine. It could be more ordinary, like finding out a few major companies have been lying about their profitability, or the collapse of some sector of the real estate market, or investors deciding to get their money out of the stock market before it falls again.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is doing what he can to make things worse. He is killing renewable energy and encouraging fossil fuel use, which (if successful) will lead to faster global warming. He is losing a trade war with China. He says his policies will cause factories to be opened in the U.S. (He has never worked in a factory or owned one.) He has undermined international confidence in the dollar.

Trump's life has shown him to be the King of Backfire. He built two casinos and they went bankrupt. Backfire, however, (when it is a metaphor for reality) works in varied ways. In this strange era we are in, one of his economic policies, that would normally hurt the economy, might prevent some black swan event. Some policy change that seems reasonable might become the wave that wipes out Mar-a-Lago.

When a bridge has aged without being repaired, just having a single truck pass over it might one day cause it to collapse. America needs repairs of all sorts. The ecology of the world is in tatters most places. Things might hold together for another decade or two. They might collapse by Christmas.

So do try to control the one person you can control: yourself. Pay off your credit cards. Save some money in case your lose your job. Try to keep a couple weeks worth of food in your pantry. Talk to your neighbors. If things go wrong, friends and neighbors are your most valuable resource.

Stay safe, stay free.