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The Human Crush
July 20, 2022
by William P. Meyers

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It is likely that at some point in this Slow Motion Apocalypse the global population of Homo sapiens will collapse. I see no way to predict whether it will continue to grow and then collapse from a peak, or whether we will hit a slow decline, with a crash only after years or decades of slow decline. There are too many variables, including unknowns, and too much statistical variance to make a prediction with any degree of confidence. Both scenarios have been predicted, as well as the no-problem, the earth can easily carry 10 billion (or 12, or 15, ...), we just need the right tech for it. At some point historians will look back and say who was right, and likely think they were right because they were better analysts and forecasters than the people who turned out to be wrong.

Today Joe Biden announced he is basically going to do nothing about global warming. He is going to help poor people pay their heating and cooling bills. Which means more energy use, and more carbon emissions, and a bit more global warming. Around the world coal-fired electricity plants are being restarted to deal with the increasing demand for energy combined with natural gas and petroleum shortages. True, Joe Biden is frustrated by the lack of an environmentalist majority in the U.S. Senate. But even if he had a majority, he would rather promise working people to subsidize more children than to create an enforce the one plan that might work at this point in the real world: a One Child Policy.

Too many people consuming too much, and frankly the politicians, both dictators and elected, are doing what the people want. Big business wants it too. Sure, a few people see the temperature gauges rising, people in business, people in the middle class, some workers and even some welfare types. Everyone wants a better environment, but almost everyone wants more stuff, including baby Homo sapiens. Some parts of the world are bursting with young humans of reproducing age.

I'm not saying environmentalists should stop trying, but really, I have found them to be a bunch of back-stabbing, self interested, egotistical idiots not much different than the environmentally indifferent. Most groups won't touch the human overpopulation question because it is not a money maker, it does not attract new members, it is political suicide. It is easier to save a charismatic species or promise to pave Nature over with silicon solar cells than to get supposedly Green groups to fight together for what really needs to be done.

So London is burning, or was yesterday, and we can look forward to more of that in the future. The main nation behind the Industrial Revolution is about to be eaten by its Frankenstein. It is poetic justice, but it does not save the Earth.

How shall the humans die? Aside from the new normal induced by modern medicine about the same time as the Industrial Revolution, and greatly accelerated by the creation of vaccines and antibiotics. Think about that and you can see the most likely scenario. Famine will lead to some population reduction, but it will be the collapse of the supply chain that will start cutting off medicines, at first in a patchwork fashion. Without medicines the death rate will climb. This will likely create further holes in the supply chain.

The other high-probability scenario is just plain famine. That could result from drought, temperature extremes, or disruptions in the manufacture and distribution of fertilizer.

And forget hippy environmentalist fantasies. We know how many people can be fed with purely organic farming in the United States because we know how many were actually fed before mechanization and other modern farming techniques were introduced. That is about 50 million, assuming that 90% of the population is will to go back to the hard work of farming.

It is a hard road ahead. I see no reason to mince words. In the worst case scenario, towards then end their is cannibalism, then just rats and roaches.

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